19th - Webinar - Forecast and Prediction

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Dear Colleagues welcome to the COVID-19-Response-Webinar website and the upcoming online colloquium titled:

Current Debate 19th
October 7th-8th, 2022
19th Debate COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction
October 7th-8th, 2022

Proceedings of the Past Debates
This Collection of lectures highlights all content webinar lectures related to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2019-21. We are committed to disseminating research as quickly as possible, particularly in public health emergencies.
The Proceedings of the last 11th through 18th webinars are here:[[1]]
10th Webinar COVID-19: Forecast and Prediction, February 19th - 20th, 2021.
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Grzegorz Rządkowski, Technical University of Warsaw, Poland Identifying Resilience Factors of Distress and Paranoia During the COVID-19 Outbreak in Five Countries.
2 Mario Natiello, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Lund, Sweden A model of COVID-19 Transmission in Relation to Sanitary Policies: Myths and Facts.
3 Kristian Schneider, University of Applied Sciences Mittweida, Germany The Vaccine has Arrived - Now What? Modeling COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies.
4 Alexandre Nicolas, Institut Lumière Matière (University of Lyon), France Model-based Estimation of the Risks of Viral Transmission in Non-confined Crowds and Assessment of the Efficiency of Redesigning Strategies
5 Sara Gandini, Istituto Europeo di Oncologia, Italy No Evidence of Association Between Schools and SARS-CoV-2 Second Wave in Italy.
6 Philippe Wanner, University of Geneva, Switzerland Regional Impact of Covid-19 on Mortality Levels in Switzerland.
7 Jose L. Sainz-Pardo and José Valero, Universitas Miguel Hernández, Spain An Extensive Computational Experience is Reported Simulating the Distribution of Tests Among the Counties of New York and Measuring its Effectiveness.
8 Monica Billio and Michele Costola, Università Ca’ Foscari, Venezia, Italy COVID-19 Spreading in Financial Networks: A Semiparametric Matrix Regression Model.
9 Juri Dimaschko and Vladimir Shlyakhover, Retired professor and Ashkelon Barzilai Medical Center, Israel. Superspreading as a Regular Factor of the COVID-19 Pandemic: III. Stopping the Epidemic with and without Vaccination.
10 Venkatesha Prasad and Asutosh Simha, Delft University, The Netherlands Modelling of Respiratory Droplets Produced by Coughing in Relation to SARS-Cov-2 Transmission.
9th Webinar COVID-19: Forecast and Prediction, January 22nd - 23rd, 2021.
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Emil J. Bergholtz, Stockholm University, Sweden Synchronization in Epidemic Growth and the Impossibility of Selective Containment.
2 Corrado Spinella, National Research Council of Italy Phenomenological description and future scenarios of the spread of Covid-19 infection in Italy.
3 Wibke Bayer, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany Symptom-based Prediction Model of SARS-CoV-2 Infection.
4 Julie Rowlett, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden Influencing Decisions and Fighting Disease
5 Max von Kleist, Robert Koch Institut, Germany COVIDStrategyCalculator: A Software to Assess Non-pharmaceutic SARS-CoV-2 Containment Strategies.
6 Benjamin Roche, Research Institute for Development Montpellier, France Rational social distancing and the spread of COVID-19 in France.
7 Arne Elofsson, SciLifeLab, Stockholm University, Sweden Baysian (and Other Types) of Models for Understanding the Spread of COVID-19.
8 Torbjörn Lundh, Chalmers University of Technology, Sweden Predicting Regional COVID-19 Hospital Admissions in Sweden Using Mobility Data.
9 Fabina Zama, University of Bolonia, Italy Monitoring COVID-19 Spread by Forced SEIRD Models
10 Valerio D'Alessandro, Università Politecnica delle Marche, Italy Modelling of Respiratory Droplets Produced by Coughing in Relation to SARS-Cov-2 Transmission.
11 Jaroslav Ilnytskyi, National Academy of Sciences, Ukraine The SEIRS Compartment Epidemiology Model for Description of COVID-19 Spread: Analytic and Numeric Study.
12 Kernel Prieto,Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México Current Forecast of COVID-19 in Mexico: a Bayesian and Machine Learning Approaches
8th Webinar COVID-19: Forecast and Prediction, December 18th - 19th, 2020.
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Álvaro Leitao Rodríguez, University of a Coruña, Spain A stochastic θ-SEIHRD model: adding randomness to the COVID-19 spread.
2 Patrizio Colaneri, Polytechnic University of Milan, Italy Covid-19 in Italy: SIDARTHE and beyond.
3 Andrzej Jaszkiewicz, Poznań University of Technology, Poland Modified Dorfman procedure for pool tests with dilution - COVID-19 case study.
4 Nathalie Bajos, Institute of Health and Medical Research, France When lockdown policies amplify social inequalities in COVID-19 infections. Evidence from a cross-sectional population-based survey in France.
5 Björn W. Schuller, University of Augsburg, Germany Hearing COVID-19 with Computers.
6 Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron, Université de Bordeaux, France Rational social distancing and the spread of COVID-19 in France.
7 Matti Estola, University of Eastern Finland, Finland How Covid-19 Pandemic Changes the Theory of Economics?
8 Clifford Federspiel, Vigilent, USA A Healthy Buildings Guideline for the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond.
9 Laura Liu, University of Virginia, USA Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections
10 Adriana Reyna, University of Zaragoza, Spain Virus spread versus contact tracing: two competing contagion processes.
7th Webinar COVID-19: Forecast and Prediction, November 20th - 21st, 2020.
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Silvia Ullo, University of Sannio, Italy AIRSENSE-TO-ACT: A Concept Paper for COVID-19 Countermeasures Based on

Artificial Intelligence Algorithms and Multi-sources Data Processing.

2 Grzegorz Rządkowski, Technical University of Warsaw, Poland Modelling the spread of SARS-CoV-2 virus infections by using logistic wavelets.
3 Marco Baiesi, Università degli Studi di Padova, Italy Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading
4 Kristan Schneider, University of Applied Sciences, Germany Preventing COVID-19 spread in closed facilities
5 Gjalt Huppes & Ruben Huele, Universiteit Leiden, Netherlands SARS-2 production and spreading in the environment; a physical approach.
6 Johannes Müller, Technical University of Munich, Germany Super-Spreading and Contact Tracing
7 Mattia Morini, Epidemiology Department of Prevention, Perugia, Italy Impact of COVID-19 on the mortality rates for the resident population of the Umbria region in Italy
8 Giulio D'Agostini, Università di Roma La Sapienza, Italy Inferring vaccine efficacies and their uncertainties. A simple model implemented in JAGS/rjags.
9 Adriana Reyna, University of Zaragoza, Spain Virus spread versus contact tracing: two competing contagion processes.
6th Webinar COVID-19: Forecast and Prediction, October 23rd -24th, 2020.
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Rainer Janssen, Paderborn, Germany
Juergen Mimkes, Paderborn U, Germany
On the Numbers of Infected and Deceased in the Second Corona Wave
2 Jose Olalla/U of Sevilla, Spain Exponential Distribution of Large Excess Death Rates in Europe
3 Giuseppe De Natale, Instituto Nazionale, Italy The Evolution of COVID-19 in Italy Through Statistical Analysis
4 Stanislas Harizanov, Bulgarian Acad. Sci. Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics
5 George Panagopoulos, Ecole Polytechnique, France Transfer Graph Neural Networks for Pandemic Forecasting
6 Michalis Vizirgiannis, KTH Sweden Transfer Graph Neural Networks for Pandemic Forecasting
7 Nicoletta D'Angelo, U of Palermo, Italy Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling
8 Sebastian Raimondo, CoMuNe Lab, Italy Environmental Conditions and Human Activity Nexus
9 Erik Maldonado, U of Berlin Comparison of COVID-19 in Different Countries
5th Debate COVID-19, Forecast and Prediction, September 18th - 19th, 2020
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Giovanni Gallo, INAPP, Italy Assessing policies related to Covid-19 in hardly reliable data.[2]
2 Michelangelo Puliga, LinkaLab Italy Covid-19 early warning signals in social media?[3]
3 Yurii Dimaschko, Fachhochschule Lübeck Superspreading as a Regular Factor of the COVID-19 Pandemic: II. Quarantine Measures and the Second Wave.[4]
4 Bosiljka Tadic, Jozef Stefan Institute Agent-based modeling of latent infection transmissions.[5]
5 Roberto Zavatta, Economisti Associati Territorial patterns in COVID-19 mortality
6 Kai Nagel, Technische Universität Berlin Using mobile phone data for epidemiological simulations of lockdowns: government interventions, behavioral changes, and resulting changes of reinfections. [6]
7 Jordi Faraudo, Spanish National Research Council Molecular Dynamics Simulations Of The Interaction Between Sars-Cov-2 And Different Materials.
8 Giuseppe De Natale, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica The evolution of Covid-19 in Italy through statistical analysis: from lethality estimates to seasonal effects.
9 Elisa Alòs, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona A fractional model for the COVID-19 pandemic: Application to Italian data.[7]
10 Stanislav Harizanov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Bulgaria by time-dependent inverse SEIR model.
11 Joeri Schasfoort, University of Cape Town SABCoM: A Spatial Agent-Based Covid-19 Model.[8]
12 Giovani L. Vasconcelos, University of Parana Modelling the primary and secondary waves of COVID-19 with mathematical growth models.[9]
4th Debate COVID-19, Forecast and Prediction, July 24th - 25th, 2020 - 4th Debate COVID-19 Webinar
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Jesús Barreal Pernas, Madrid University Hospital impact analysis of initial phase epidemics by means of Beta regression with Spatio-temporal effects. [10]
2 Björn Johansson, Karolinska Institutet The effect of masking the general population on COVID-19. [11]
3 David H. Roberts, Brandeis University New Models of Epidemics and Their Applications to the COVID Pandemic. [12]
4 Didier Sornette, ETH Zurich Analysing, modelling and predicting the COVID-19 epidemics. [13]
5 Henrik Hult, KTH Estimates of the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected Individuals in Sweden
6 Juri Dimaschko, Fachhochschule Lubeck Superspreading as a Regular Factor of the COVID-19 Pandemic
7 Giovani L. Vasconcelos, U of Parana Complexity and power laws in the fatality curves of COVID-19. [14]
8 Beatrize Soane, Sorbonne Université A Scaling Approach to Estimate the COVID-19 Rate of Infections.
9 Yuri Nestorov, CORE Belgium Online analysis of epidemics with variable infection rate. [15]
1st COVID-19 by the Numbers, Models, Big Data, and Reality - April 24th - 25th, 2020
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Victoria Lopez, Madrid University
A COVID-19 mathematical model based on Flow Networks and SIR.[16]
2 Axel Branderburg, KTH Stockholm Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic.[17]
3 Alessio Muscillo, University of Sienna
Disease spreading in social networks and unintended consequences of weak social distancing.[18]
4 Marco Paggi, IMT School, Lucca Simulation of Covid-19 epidemic evolution: are compartmental models really predictive?[19]
5 Venkatesha Prasad, Delft University
A simple Stochastic SIR model for COVID-19.[20]
6 Ali Nasseri, British Columbia University
Planning as Inference in Epidemiological Dynamic Models.[21]
7 Anand Sahasranaman, Imperial College London
Data and models of COVID-19 in India.[22]
8 V. K. Jindal, Penjab University COVID-19 – a realistic model for saturation, growth and decay of the India specific disease.[23]
9 Sebastian Gonçalves, Physics Institute
Trends and Urban scaling in the COVID-19 pandemic.[24]
10 Josimar Chire, ICMC Brasil
Social Sensors to Monitor COVID-19 South American Countries.[25]
2nd COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction - May 15th -16th, 2020
# Lecturer Name
Lecture Title
1 David S. Jones, Harvard University History in a Crisis—Lessons for Covid-19[26]
2 Christofer Brandt, Universität Greifswald
Transparent comparison and prediction of corona numbers[27]
3 Gaetano Perone, University of Bergamo An Arima Model to Forecast the Spread and the final size of COVID-2019 Epidemic in Italy[28]
4 Keno Krewer, Max Planck Institute
Time-resolving an ongoing outbreak with Fourier analysis[29]
5 Gerry Killeen, University College Cork
Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics: A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it.[30]
6 Michael Li, University of Alberta Why it is difficulty to make accurate predictions of COVID-19 epidemics?[31]
7 V.K. Jindal, Panjab University
COVID-19 Primary and secondary infection as order parameter – a unifying global model.[32]
8 Ashis Das, World Bank
Rapid development of an open-access artificial intelligence decision support tool for CoVID-19 mortality prediction.[33]
9 Fulgensia Mbabazi, Busitema University
A Mathematical Model Approach for Prevention and Intervention Measures of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Uganda.[34]
3rd Debate COVID-19, Forecast and Prediction, June 26th - 27th, 2020
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Francesco Piazza, CNRS-Orleans COVID-19: The unreasonable effectiveness of simple models. [35]
2 Martijn J. Hoogeveen, Open Universiteit Pollen Explains Flu-like & Covid-19 Seasonality: developing a predictive model. [36]
3 Henrik Hult, KTH Estimates of the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in Sweden. [37]
4 Reyer Gerlagh, Tilburg University Closed-Form Solutions for Optimal Social Distancing in a SIR Model of COVID-19 Suppression. [38]
5 Maziar Nekovee, Sussex University Understanding the spreading patterns of COVID-19 in UK and its impact on exit strategies.[39]
6 Benjamin Ambrosio, Universite du Havre On a coupled time-dependent SIR models fitting with New York and New-Jersey states COVID-19 data. [40]
7 Konstantinos Gkiotsalitis, U of Twente Optimal frequency setting of metro services in the age of COVID-19 distancing measures. [41]
8 Beatrize Soane, Sorbonne Université A Scaling Approach to Estimate the COVID-19 Rate of Infections.
9 Benedetta Cerruti, Independent Did lockdowns serve their purpose? [42]
10 Oliver Johnson, Bristol University Using non-standard measures of population density to predict the spread of COVID-19
11 Subir Das, JNCASR Spread of COVID-19: How robust are the universal features? [43]
12 Andrew Hart, University of Chile An agent-based model for COVID-19, lockdown in Santiago and the reproduction Matrix [44]

Dates to Observe

The colloquium (webinar) will take place on October 7th through 8th, 2022.

In order to accommodate fellow researchers from different time zones, the colloquium will start at 4 pm of European Time (GMT+1). Depending upon the final geographical distribution of participants, the opening time may change accordingly. Here is Time_Zone_Calculator for your convenience [45]


Registration is required for all conference participants preferably until September 30th, 2022

It is recommended to make the registration online by forwarding it to the e-mail address


the following customary information:

  • Your full name,
  • Institution address,
  • Personal Address,
  • Phone number, Skype name,
  • Tentative title of your PowerPoint presentation,
  • Abstract.

We comply with the European Union law GDPR (The General Data Protection Regulation - 25 May 2018). Eu.png[46] By completing the registration process all participants confirm that they read the above-described provisions and agreed to follow these provisions.

Registration Fee (VAT excluded)*

COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction
Webinar 19: October 7th - 8th, 2022
COVID-19 Webinar

Colloquium Fees

Early Registration

(before September 20th, 2022)

Regular Registration

(after September 20th, 2022)

Junior researchers, postdocs & Ph.D. students €350 €500
Senior Researchers €490 €790

Note that the fee is given in € (Euro). We cannot accept cash payments. Every transaction must go through the bank account.

Cancellation policy of registration

All cancellations and changes must be sent to the organizer in written form (paper). All refunds will be processed after the conference. Please send your exact bank account details in the written cancellation.

A refund of the registration fee will be made as follows:

100% refund (minus an administrative fee of €67.23 (net)) – in case of cancellation received before September 20th, 2022.

No refund – in case of cancellation, received after September 20th, 2022.


All payments should be made in €. All charges due to bank transfers have to be paid by the sender. Let us know (webinar@covid-19-response-webinar.org) if you require a proforma invoice before payment. In all remaining cases, we will forward an invoice right after the payment will be received.

Bank (wire) transfer (in €) has to be made to:

  • Bank Name: Santander Bank
  • Street: Aleja Jana Pawła II 17
  • City: 00-854 Warszawa
  • Country: Poland, European Union
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Your Lecture

Your lecture will be presented in an ordinary (usual) way using MS PowerPoint presentation. In order to allow the participants and the public to view your PowerPoint presentation please use the Skype feature titled Screen Sharing (just click on Skype icon Icon.png)

We advise having plenty of light in your room. Make sure that your microphone is all the time off, except the time when you're delivering a lecture and ask a question. Otherwise, all background noises will be recorded.

Debate Proceedings

All debate proceedings will be video-voice recorded and after required editing will be published on the internet at the debate website and various repositories.