5th Webinar - Forecast and Prediction

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Dear Colleagues welcome to COVID-19-Response-Webinar website and the upcoming online colloquium titled:

Current Debate 5th
September 18th-19th, 2020
5th Debate COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction
September 18th-19th, 2020


Proceedings of the Past Debates
5th Debate COVID-19, Forecast and Prediction, September 18th - 19th, 2020
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Giovanni Gallo, INAPP, Italy Assessing policies related to Covid-19 in hardly reliable data.
2 Michelangelo Puliga, LinkaLab Italy Covid-19 early warning signals in social media?
3 Yurii Dimaschko, Fachhochschule Lübeck Superspreading as a Regular Factor of the COVID-19 Pandemic: II. Quarantine Measures and the Second Wave.
4 Bosiljka Tadic, Jozef Stefan Institute Agent-based modeling of latent infection transmissions.
5 Roberto Zavatta, Economisti Associati Territorial patterns in COVID-19 mortality
6 Kai Nagel, Technische Universität Berlin Using mobile phone data for epidemiological simulations of lockdowns: government interventions, behavioral changes,

and resulting changes of reinfections.

7 Jordi Faraudo, Spanish National Research Council Molecular Dynamics Simulations Of The Interaction Between Sars-Cov-2 And Different Materials.
8 Giuseppe De Natale, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica The evolution of Covid-19 in Italy through statistical analysis: from lethality estimates to seasonal effects.
9 Elisa Alòs, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona A fractional model for the COVID-19 pandemic: Application to Italian data.
10 Stanislav Harizanov, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Bulgaria by time-dependent inverse SEIR model.
11 Joeri Schasfoort, University of Cape Town SABCoM: A Spatial Agent-Based Covid-19 Model.
12 Giovani L. Vasconcelos, University of Parana Modelling the primary and secondary waves of COVID-19 with mathematical growth models
4th Debate COVID-19, Forecast and Prediction, July 24th - 25th, 2020 - 4th Debate COVID-19 Webinar
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Jesús Barreal Pernas, Madrid University Hospital impact analysis of initial phase epidemics by means of Beta regression with Spatio-temporal effects. [1]
2 Björn Johansson, Karolinska Institutet The effect of masking the general population on COVID-19. [2]
3 David H. Roberts, Brandeis University New Models of Epidemics and Their Applications to the COVID Pandemic. [3]
4 Didier Sornette, ETH Zurich Analysing, modelling and predicting the COVID-19 epidemics. [4]
5 Henrik Hult, KTH Estimates of the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected Individuals in Sweden
6 Juri Dimaschko, Fachhochschule Lubeck Superspreading as a Regular Factor of the COVID-19 Pandemic
7 Giovani L. Vasconcelos, U of Parana Complexity and power laws in the fatality curves of COVID-19. [5]
8 Beatrize Soane, Sorbonne Université A Scaling Approach to Estimate the COVID-19 Rate of Infections.
9 Yuri Nestorov, CORE Belgium Online analysis of epidemics with variable infection rate. [6]
1st COVID-19 by the Numbers, Models, Big Data, and Reality - April 24th - 25th, 2020
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Victoria Lopez, Madrid University
A COVID-19 mathematical model based on Flow Networks and SIR.[7]
2 Axel Branderburg, KTH Stockholm Piecewise quadratic growth during the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic.[8]
3 Alessio Muscillo, University of Sienna
Disease spreading in social networks and unintended consequences of weak social distancing.[9]
4 Marco Paggi, IMT School, Lucca Simulation of Covid-19 epidemic evolution: are compartmental models really predictive?[10]
5 Venkatesha Prasad, Delft University
A simple Stochastic SIR model for COVID-19.[11]
6 Ali Nasseri, British Columbia University
Planning as Inference in Epidemiological Dynamic Models.[12]
7 Anand Sahasranaman, Imperial College London
Data and models of COVID-19 in India.[13]
8 V. K. Jindal, Penjab University COVID-19 – a realistic model for saturation, growth and decay of the India specific disease.[14]
9 Sebastian Gonçalves, Physics Institute
Trends and Urban scaling in the COVID-19 pandemic.[15]
10 Josimar Chire, ICMC Brasil
Social Sensors to Monitor COVID-19 South American Countries.[16]
2nd COVID-19 Forecast and Prediction - May 15th -16th, 2020
# Lecturer Name
Lecture Title
1 David S. Jones, Harvard University History in a Crisis—Lessons for Covid-19[17]
2 Christofer Brandt, Universität Greifswald
Transparent comparison and prediction of corona numbers[18]
3 Gaetano Perone, University of Bergamo An Arima Model to Forecast the Spread and the final size of COVID-2019 Epidemic in Italy[19]
4 Keno Krewer, Max Planck Institute
Time-resolving an ongoing outbreak with Fourier analysis[20]
5 Gerry Killeen, University College Cork
Pushing past the tipping points in containment trajectories of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemics: A simple arithmetic rationale for crushing the curve instead of merely flattening it.[21]
6 Michael Li, University of Alberta Why it is difficulty to make accurate predictions of COVID-19 epidemics?[22]
7 V.K. Jindal, Panjab University
COVID-19 Primary and secondary infection as order parameter – a unifying global model.[23]
8 Ashis Das, World Bank
Rapid development of an open-access artificial intelligence decision support tool for CoVID-19 mortality prediction.[24]
9 Fulgensia Mbabazi, Busitema University
A Mathematical Model Approach for Prevention and Intervention Measures of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Uganda.[25]
3rd Debate COVID-19, Forecast and Prediction, June 26th - 27th, 2020
# Lecturer Name Lecture Title
1 Francesco Piazza, CNRS-Orleans COVID-19: The unreasonable effectiveness of simple models
2 Martijn J. Hoogeveen, Open Universiteit Pollen Explains Flu-like & Covid-19 Seasonality: developing a predictive model
3 Henrik Hult, KTH Estimates of the proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals in Sweden
4 Reyer Gerlagh, Tilburg University Closed-Form Solutions for Optimal Social Distancing in a SIR Model of COVID-19 Suppression
5 Maziar Nekovee, Sussex University Understanding the spreading patterns of COVID-19 in UK and its impact on exit strategies.
6 Benjamin Ambrosio, Universite du Havre On a coupled time-dependent SIR models fitting with New York and New-Jersey states COVID-19 data
7 Konstantinos Gkiotsalitis, U of Twente Optimal frequency setting of metro services in the age of COVID-19 distancing measures
8 Beatrize Soane, Sorbonne Université A Scaling Approach to Estimate the COVID-19 Rate of Infections.
9 Benedetta Cerruti, Independent Did lockdowns serve their purpose?
10 Oliver Johnson, Bristol University Using non-standard measures of population density to predict the spread of COVID-19
11 Subir Das, JNCASR Spread of COVID-19: How robust are the universal features?
12 Andrew Hart, University of Chile An agent-based model for COVID-19, lockdown in Santiago and the reproduction Matrix